VCU (+2.5) vs. Butler (-2.5); Total set at 133.5
Last year’s Cinderella meets this year’s version as the Butler Bulldogs look to head back to the NCAA Championship game for back-to-back seasons. Butler went on their historic run last season and were one shot away from claiming the title and now they get a second chance at it if they can get by these Rams from Virginia Commonwealth. VCU has gone from being one of the last four teams in the tournament to the Final Four and it’s not like they are squeaking by either. They have thoroughly dominated quality teams like Georgetown, Purdue and Kansas to get here, thanks to lights out three point shooting and quick, relentless defensive pressure that has their opponents unable to find a way to combat it.
Butler won’t fall victim to taking them lightly though because they know all too well how hot Cinderella’s can get at this time of year. They have had a week to gameplan and determine the best ways to guard the three point line against this VCU team and should look to use their interior size to their advantage. VCU had a negative rebounding margin on the year, so if Butler can control the glass and limit VCU’s second-chance opportunities as well as create some of their own, they should be able to get back to the final. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in their last seventeen games at a neutral site and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games. You may think that a majority of those ATS tournament wins happened when they were listed as dogs which is true, but they are 4-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as favorites their last five attempts and their veteran leadership has proven the past two seasons that they know how to get it done during crunch time.
Yet, VCU has that magic on their site and they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine tournament games as underdogs. Coach Shaka Smart has clearly played up that underdog role all tournament long and his team has responded very well. They may be undersized in this game but their pressure defense is relentless and we saw how Butler can struggle against the press in almost blowing it late to Wisconsin. They will bring that press on Butler in full force and likely mix it up at times as well just to keep the Butler guards guessing as to when and how often they will see it. VCU has beaten a team from every major conference so far in the tournament, so it will interesting to see if they can notch a victory against a mid-major like Butler.
If VCU doesn’t seem awestruck to be there (from the way the players and coaches have been talking all week, it doesn’t look like they will be) I believe that they have the advantage with the great equalizer (3 point shooting) and can always make a late push if they find themselves down. Their impressive performance over Kansas (the 2nd ranked team in the country) showed that they are able to play and soundly beat anyone and it is tough to go against the magic mojo they got going for themselves. Butler has been here and done that, and it is time they step aside and let another Cinderella get her chance at the ball.
Take VCU at +2.5 and on the money line.
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