Sweet Sixteen Betting
There are two games later tonight that will conclude the round of sixteen in the NCAA tournament and send the last two successful schools into the Elite Eight. This piece will briefly look at both and suggest solid wagers on the games.
#4 Kentucky Wildcats (+6) vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6); Total set at 141.5
The top-seeded Buckeyes have cruised through their first two games but tonight’s contest should easily be their stiffest test yet. Kentucky is a very talented team and may be one of the few teams in college basketball that has a player in John Harrellson who has the size and strength to cover Jared Sullinger one-on-one for the majority of the game. If Harrellson gets into foul trouble early on though, the doubles will have to come and that leaves Ohio State’s sharp-shooters wide open on the outside to let it rain three’s. Ohio State is also a veteran squad that has been through wars over the years and they still even have one player left from the 2007 title game loss to Florida in David Lighty. Lighty is no doubt the energetic leader of this team and he is coming off a game where he shot 7 for 7 from beyond the arc.
Kentucky will hang tough though and it wouldn’t be too surprising if they did in fact pull off the upset. Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller will need to hit their shots though and that will be tough against an Ohio State team that allowed less than 60 points against on the year. Kentucky is 1-7 ATS when following an ATS win and they might just be overmatched here by the best team in college basketball this year. In our eyes, this game goes one of two ways: Kentucky wins or loses it late on a last second shot or they get run off the floor come crunch time and Ohio State wins by double digits.
And with that, we side here with laying the points on Ohio State. There are just too many sharp shooters for the Buckeyes that Kentucky cannot keep up with and if they do decide to play man up on Sullinger, he has way better footwork and will go for 25 pts plus and 12 plus rebounds against Harrellson. Kentucky is in the tough spot of where they must pick their poison and hope for the best and that is just something we cannot back in this spot.
Take Ohio State -6
#11 VCU (+4) vs. #10 Florida State (-4); Total set at 131
No one would have thought that these two teams would be squaring off for a birth in the Elite Eight but that is where we stand now. Florida State comes into this game with its vaunted defense that has held opponents to 36% shooting on the year, good for best in the country and the lowest mark by any team in some 20 years or so. They dominated a good shooting team in Notre Dame last round by holding them to a measly 57 points as they cruised to the upset victory. They will have to do something similar as VCU has been shooting the ball lights out so far in this tournament and have made the most three pointers of any team with 29 so far.
VCU plays a chaotic style of offense that seems to have worked in earlier round partially because their opponents had minimal time to prepare. That won’t be the case this time and Florida State’s length and defensive prowess should give them issues. That isn’t to say that VCU won’t get their points though, they likely will but will it be enough to cover the number, let alone earn the victory. They are 7-0 ATS in tournament games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS against teams from the ACC. Historically, the ACC tends to struggle against the number in the Sweet Sixteen and last night was no different with Duke going down. But defense wins championships and Florida State has the former.
So in a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, it is tough not to side with the defensive team. However, laying 4 points with a Florida State team that does struggle offensively is a tough thing to stomach as well. Either way, this game will be back and forth all night and asking them to get to something like 60-60 with a few minutes to spare is completely in the realm of possibilities. If that happens, foul shots and late points are bound to happen, which gives this total a good chance of seeing the over hit.
VCU is 9-2 O/U when coming off a straight up win and they are also 6-2 O/U on a neutral floor when dogged. Yes, it is likely their shooting will cool off against this Florida State defense, but if it is only by a small amount, Florida State will have to score some of their own.
Therefore, we have a strong lean to the over 131 in this game, as we expect a close one down the stretch.
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