#5 Arizona (+8.5) vs. #1 Duke (-8.5); Total set at 145
Fresh off their controversial win over #4 Texas, the Arizona Wildcats are in the underdog role once again, this time getting quite a few more points against #1 Duke. Although there have been numerous individual superstar performances so far in this year’s edition of March Madness, one player that has been sort of forgotten in all this is Arizona’s Derrick Williams. He was the one who came up with the crucial late block against Memphis in their first game, and finished the 3 point play in the dying seconds against Texas to get that victory. What is more remarkable about that Texas performance is that Williams had been struggling all game going 3 for 13 before that final shot, but he never got discouraged and continue to attack. The Wildcats will need more of the same if they want to continue their run and upset Duke.
Not only will Williams need a dominant performance on the floor to pull off the upset, but he will need some help from his supporting cast as well. Solomon Hill will once again have to score in double digits and the other Arizona players will need to find a way to shut down the trio of Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith in Duke’s back court. Smith has been one of the best players in all of college basketball this season, Curry is deadly from long distance and Irving is projected to be a top five draft pick, despite being hurt for most of the season. Arizona is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 tournament games but as a conference in the Sweet Sixteen, the Pac-10 is 1-8 ATS when dogged by more than two points in recent years. Arizona is 4-1 ATS on neutral grounds as an underdog and they will benefit somewhat from a de-facto home court advantage given that they are playing close by in Anaheim, California. Duke is a public favorite and have supporters everywhere, but travelling cross-country might make it a bit tougher for the “Cameron Crazies” to be out in full force.
After cruising through their first game, Duke struggled down the stretch with Michigan in the last round, clinging to a two point victory in the end. They are on the short end in terms of rebounding margin in this contest so it will be important for the Plumlee brothers to establish themselves early on in the paint and make life tough for Williams and the other Arizona big men. Duke is 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Pac-10 opponents and 17-8 ATS when coming off a game where they failed to cover the number. However, laying 8.5 points is a lot to give up with everything on the line for both teams in this tournament.
The NCAAB odds makers have listed the total for this game at 145 and with both team averaging over 75 points per game this season, it is no surprise to see a big number like this. Both teams are almost identical in free throw shooting as well at 74.7 and 75% respectively, so you can’t expect either team to give away too many points at the line. Arizona is 7-1 O/U as a dog in their last tournament games while Duke is 4-1 O/U when favored in the 7 to 12.5 point range. Both teams shoot in the high 30’s percentage-wise from downtown, so expect another fast-paced game between the two with points galore.
It is tough to see Duke losing this game, especially with Irving getting healthy again and once again used to game-speed. That being said though, winning by double-digits will be tough in a one game, winner take all scenario between two quality teams. I lean towards taking the points with Arizona and the over in this game.
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