Butler (+3.5) vs. Connecticut (-3.5); Total set at 129.5
What is left to say about this year’s edition of the March Madness tournament? It has been one of the crazier ones in recent memory and we are now left with the traditional powerhouse from Connecticut and the mid-major that is building a winning tradition quite rapidly. Butler’s repeat journey to the National Title game is nothing short of remarkable and they are hoping that the magic can last for about 10 seconds longer than it did last season. Everyone remembers that last half court shot clanking off the front rim, mere inches way from victory, hoping that this year will be different. In fact, many NCAAB betting experts are saying that “it is Butler’s time” they are “a team of destiny” this season, and it would to bet against such magic. But, it isn’t like we haven’t seen this story before in the NCAA Tournament.
Granted none of these schools I am about to mention had the “mid-major” tag on them during their runs, but teams that lost in the title game one season and returned the next year have happened before. In fact, it has happened five times since the beginning of the tournament format with that “returning loser” going 2-3 SU the second time around. Ohio State was the first school to return to the tournament final in 1962 after losing in 1961 and it was actually to the same Cincinnati team. The first year was a 70-65 OT loss, but the return trip was worse in a 71-59 loss. The Houston Cougars suffered the same feat in 1983 and 84, losing by two points in ‘83 and nine points in ‘84.
The next team to reach the finals after losing the previous year was Duke as they began their mini-dynasty in the early ’90’s, losing by 30 points in 1990, only to respond a year later by beating Kansas by 7 points. As a side note, they actually made it back the next season in 1992 as they beat Michigan’s “Fab Five” team handily by 20. That same Michigan team was the next to make a repeat performance to the final after losing the year before and they followed that Duke loss with a six point loss to North Carolina in the infamous “Chris Webber timeout” game.
The final occurrence of a school making it back to the final after losing the year before was the 1998 Kentucky team that managed to avenge their 1997 OT loss to Arizona with a nine point victory over Utah. Yet, similar to the Duke story, Kentucky had also won the national title in 1996 and that 1998 year was the end of a dynasty itself, with that OT loss in ‘97 being the one blip on a potential three-peat.
History teaches us a lot about any subject in this world and by looking at the three losers of the situation that Butler finds themselves in tonight, one can reason that things don’t look good for Butler tonight. Two of those three losers (Ohio State and Houston) lost in a close contest in year one, only to get blown out by a larger margin the second time around and none of the three teams managed to keep the deficit within the 3 points given to Butler tonight.
Well, you could argue that Duke and Kentucky managed to win after losing the title the year before, but both were in the middle or starting three-year dynasties that saw their schools become yearly powerhouses in college basketball during that era. As good as Butler has been the past two seasons, it is tough to argue that they are a typical “powerhouse” and with so many seniors set to graduate this season, a three year dynasty is highly unlikely.
So after this long drawn out history lesson, I would tend to dispute the idea that Butler is “due” this season because of how close they got last year. If anything, I would expect the opposite given the past. They do hold a decided advantage in terms of experience and seniority on their team which bodes well for them, but they are severely outmatched across the board in terms of athleticism. They are also up against one of the best players in college basketball in Kemba Walker who has the ability to take his team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.
It is likely that UConn won’t need that from Kemba as his supporting cast in Lamb and Oriakhi have proven they can dominate their respective positions and produce points when needed. If Oriakhi, Smith and the other big men on Connecticut can get Matt Howard into some foul trouble early or neutralize him on the boards, the Huskies talent will take over with Howard on the bench and they will blow this game open.
As much as I expect this to be a very close and entertaining game to watch and have been torn on who will cover for the past 48 hours, I have got to side with history here. History says that returning losers tend to struggle the second time around and I believe that will be the case tonight. Not to mention, UConn has made it to three Final Fours, and won two titles all from winning the “West Region”, which low and behold is where they came from this year. History repeats itself and tonight should be no different.
Lay the 3.5 points with UConn and watch as Kemba cuts down the nets after the game.
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